The Chief Economists’ Outlook (September 2025), published by the World Economic Forum, provides an in-depth assessment of the global economy at a time of profound uncertainty. Based on a survey of leading economists from business, policy and academia, the report highlights both the persistence of short-term shocks and the acceleration of long-term structural change. The overall picture is one of resilience under stress, yet also of fragile growth prospects with risks largely tilted to the downside.
The survey results show that 72 percent of chief economists expect global conditions to weaken in the coming year. This outlook reflects a convergence of disruptive forces such as trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, climate extremes and the rapid development of artificial intelligence. These challenges are unfolding against the backdrop of slowing globalization and weakening international cooperation, creating what the report describes as one of the most turbulent periods in decades.
Regional perspectives underline how uneven this turbulence has become. In the United States, the economy faces subdued growth as tariffs reshape trade flows and inflation risks remain elevated. Fiscal policy has turned expansionary, adding trillions to projected deficits, while monetary policy has cautiously shifted toward interest rate cuts. Europe shows tentative signs of improvement with stable employment, subdued inflation and governments adopting expansionary budgets. China continues to grow at a relatively strong pace of more than 5 percent, but deflationary pressures and a fragile housing market create uncertainty. Other regions show diverse patterns. Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to achieve moderate gains, while the Middle East and North Africa stand out for strong growth prospects supported by diversification strategies and resource expansion.
Beyond regional dynamics, the report highlights structural disruptions that cut across the global economy. Trade and global value chains are under severe strain, with United States tariffs reaching levels not seen since the 1930s. More than 70 percent of surveyed economists consider trade disruption to be very high and many expect it to persist for the long term, leading to new patterns of fragmentation. Multinational corporations are already reshaping supply chains, with Apple announcing 600 billion dollars in U.S. supply chain investments.
Technology and innovation represent another critical pressure point. Artificial intelligence is emerging as a general method of invention. More than two-thirds of respondents believe AI will become commercially disruptive within the next year, and three-quarters expect long-term structural change. Its effects range from new productivity potential and transformative innovation to rising energy demand from data centers and fierce competition for talent. The outlook for labor markets remains divided, as some economists expect significant disruption while others emphasize the opportunities for reskilling and adaptation.
Other systemic vulnerabilities identified in the report include climate and resource pressures as well as fiscal fragility. Extreme weather events are already producing measurable GDP losses, underscoring the economic costs of climate change. Fiscal risks are also rising. Global public debt now exceeds 100 trillion dollars and 80 percent of surveyed economists expect debt sustainability challenges to intensify in advanced economies. Added to this is a weakening of global institutions such as the UN, the WTO and even the IMF, which are struggling to maintain influence in an increasingly fragmented environment.
The report also distinguishes sharply between advanced and developing economies when it comes to growth drivers and inhibitors. Advanced economies are expected to rely heavily on technology and human capital, with growing competition for talent shaping future strategies. Developing economies, by contrast, depend primarily on access to capital and natural resources. However, progress in these regions is often constrained by political instability, weak institutions and limited integration into global markets. Many respondents expect the gap between advanced and developing economies to widen, even though Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America still offer significant untapped growth potential.
The Chief Economists’ Outlook (September 2025) ultimately describes a global economy in transition. It is moving from temporary disruptions to a new economic order defined by heightened uncertainty, accelerated technological change and fragmented growth pathways. For policymakers and business leaders the challenge is to reduce systemic risks while seizing the transformative opportunities that emerge from this turbulent environment.
The full report was published by the World Economic Forum and is available on the organization’s official website.